Will the emerging markets keep the global economy afloat if the developed world is hit by a double dip? Since the financial crisis, the shift in economic power from the developed to the developing world has been palpable. Such is the dynamism of the larger emerging market economies that many people appear to think that they could indeed come to the rescue. Yet this optimism is sadly misplaced.
That is not to say the dynamism is illusory. The story of the recovery from the recent recession is a remarkable one. While the developed world has been struggling to return to pre-crisis output levels, the International Monetary Fund estimated earlier this year that the output of developing Asia and Latin America was 7 per cent and 2 per cent above 1997-2006 trends respectively.
The emerging markets are expected to account for 38 per cent of global output by 2016 compared with just 25 per cent in 2007. We also know that the developing world’s productivity growth will outstrip the developed world beyond 2016 as high levels of public sector debt in the west crowd out private investment.