Economic turmoil in the US and Europe is helping to accelerate a deeper, long term development. After three centuries of economic dominance, the west is about to be eclipsed by a rising Asian power: China. Not only may the Chinese economy soon be larger than America’s – if measured in purchasing power – but the renminbi could displace the dollar as the premier, reserve currency within the next decade or soon thereafter.
Sceptics will scoff for two reasons. First, even if China’s economy overtakes America’s, the renminbi’s rise could be delayed. America’s economy surpassed Great Britain’s in the early 1870s, but the dollar displaced sterling decisively only around World War II. That implies there could be a lag of about 70 years between economic dominance and currency ascendancy.
Second, China is far from creating the policy and market environment for the renminbi to become a reserve currency. China’s capital account is still largely closed and the renminbi still not convertible and freely available to foreigners; its financial system is government controlled; and its markets lack the depth to provide the liquidity critical to make a currency attractive to hold and trade. In these circumstances, how could foreign governments or private players make payments in renminbi, hold renminbi assets, or denominate economic transactions in renminbi?