The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has a mischievous bent. At a time when everyone including the Queen of England wonders why economists did not anticipate the financial crisis and still cannot agree a cure, the academy awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize (it is not technically a Nobel) to two American professors synonymous with economic modelling. It is popular to question Thomas Sargent’s line of work these days. In the 1970s, he revelled in the complex economic models that were the foundation of the so-called dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models now ubiquitous in central bank decision making. More important, he introduced into these models the burgeoning field of rational expectations – another idea increasingly under fire.
瑞典皇家科学院(Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences)可真是喜欢“恶搞”。就在包括英国女王在内的所有人都想知道，为何manbetx20客户端下载 学家未能预见到金融危机、甚至到现在都拿不出一致对策的时候，瑞典皇家科学院却将诺贝尔manbetx20客户端下载 学奖（Sveriges Riksbank Prize，严格说来，这并非诺贝尔奖）授予了两位堪称“manbetx20客户端下载 建模代名词”的美国教授。这段时间，质疑托马斯•萨金特(Thomas Sargent)所从事职业的做法已经十分流行。上世纪70年代，萨金特沉迷于复杂的manbetx20客户端下载 模型，建立了所谓的动态随机一般均衡模型(DSGE)。如今，央行在进行决策时都要用到这些模型。而更重要的是，他在这些模型中引入了当时刚开始兴起的理性预期——这在眼下已经成为又一个越发受到抨击的观点。