观点意大利

Why Italy’s days in the eurozone may be numbered
“大到没法救”的意大利


美国纽约大学斯特恩商学院教授鲁比尼:在国债利率飙升到7%以上的情况下,意大利可能很快就将无法通过市场来融资。这个国家既“大到不能倒”,也“大到没法救”。

With interest rates on its sovereign debt surging above 7 per cent, there is a rising risk that Italy may soon lose market access. Given that it is too big to fail but also too big to save, this could lead to a forced restructuring of its public debt of €1,900bn. That would partly address its “stock” problem of large and unsustainable debt but it would not resolve its “flow” problem, of a large current account deficit, lack of external competitiveness and a worsening plunge in gross domestic product and economic activity.

在主权债务利率飙升到7%以上的情况下,意大利面临一个越来越大的风险:它很快将丧失通过市场来融资的能力。这个国家既“大到不能倒”,也“大到没法救”。有鉴于此,该国高达1.9万亿欧元的公共债务可能面临强制性重组。这种重组可部分解决“存量”问题,即数额庞大且不可承受的债务;但它解决不了“流量”问题,即巨额经常账户赤字、缺乏对外竞争力、国内生产总值(GDP)不断下滑和manbetx20客户端下载 活动日益萧条。

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