The current turmoil in the eurozone bonds markets shows striking parallels to the situation in autumn 2008. Then, bank depositors had lost confidence in the stability of the institutions holding their assets, and the threat of a bank-run could only be avoided by comprehensive government guarantees for all banks. Today, we are observing a bond-run: a self-fulfilling crisis of confidence in the stability of most eurozone sovereign borrowers. This is driving long-term rates up, so that for more and more countries a temporary liquidity problem is becoming a permanent solvency problem. As regulators still treat government bonds as the safe core of the financial system, this vicious circle threatens the stability of financial institutions not only in the eurozone but also in the rest of the world. It intensifies the recessionary tendencies in the global economy so that in turn the financial situation of governments becomes worse. It’s a perfect vicious circle.
欧元区债券市场当前的混乱局面，与2008年秋季的情形极为相似。当时，储户们对持有其资产的银行的稳定性丧失了信心，只有政府为所有银行提供全面担保，才能避免银行挤兑风险。如今，我们正面临一场债券挤兑风潮：这是一场“自我实现”的信心危机——人们对大多数欧元区主权债务国的稳定性失去了信心。这种情况正导致长期收益率上扬，于是在越来越多的国家，暂时的流动性问题正变成一种永久性的偿付能力问题。由于监管者仍将政府债券当成金融体系的安全核心，这种恶性循环不仅危及欧元区金融机构的稳定，也威胁着世界其它地区的金融机构。它加剧了manbetx app苹果 manbetx20客户端下载 的衰退倾向，这反过来又导致政府的财政状况恶化。这是一个“完美的”恶性循环。