专栏预测模型

A wise man knows one thing – the limits of his knowledge
模型的流弊


FT专栏作家约翰•凯:现在许多部门喜欢使用预测模型,但他们输入模型的许多数据都是编造的,预测者可以通过刻意选择得到想要的预测结果。

John Maynard Keynes, who never tried to conceal that he knew more than most people, also knew the limits to his knowledge. He wrote “about these matters – the prospect of a European war, the price of copper 20 years hence – there is no scientific basis on which to form any calculable probability whatever. We simply do not know.”

凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)认为自己知道的比大多数人都多,而且他从不掩饰这个看法,但他也知道,自己所知有限。他曾写道:“欧洲会不会爆发战争、20年后的铜价是多少钱,这样的问题无法依据科学的理论、通过计算得出概率性结果。我们根本不知道。”

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