The euro may soon collapse even though there is no fundamental reason for it to fail. Everything depends on Italy, because financial markets now fear it may be insolvent. If Italy must continue paying a 7 per cent interest rate, the country’s total debt will grow faster than its ability to service that debt. If investors expect that to persist, they will stop lending to Italy. At that point, Italy will be forced to leave the euro. The resulting “new lira” will reduce the price of Italian exports. Competitive pressure could then force France to leave the euro as well, bringing the monetary union to an end.
欧元可能很快崩溃，即便没有任何根本原因。一切都取决于意大利，因为金融市场目前担心该国可能无力偿债。如果意大利必须为其国债继续支付7%的利率，那么它的债务总额的增速将超过其偿债能力。如果投资者预计这种情形将持续下去，他们就不会再借钱给意大利。到那时意大利将被迫脱离欧元区。由此产生的“新里拉”将导致意大利出口价格下降。接着，竞争压力可能迫使法国也脱离欧元区，从而导致欧元区解体。