观点欧元区

The terrible consequences of a eurozone collapse
欧元解体后果严重


花旗首席manbetx20客户端下载 学家威廉姆•比特:假使欧元区解体,即便只是部分解体,后果将会一团糟。而如果欧元区全面或是彻底解体,则将引发一场大混乱。

What happens if the euro collapses? A euro area breakup, even a partial one involving the exit of one or more fiscally and competitively weak countries, would be chaotic. A full or comprehensive break-up, with the euro area splintering into a Greater Deutschmark zone and about 10 national currencies would create pandemonium. It would not be a planned, orderly, gradual unwinding of existing political, economic and legal commitments. Exit, partial or full, would likely be precipitated by disorderly sovereign defaults in the fiscally and competitively weak member states, whose currencies would weaken dramatically and whose banks would fail. If Spain and Italy were to exit, there would be a collapse of systemically important financial institutions throughout the European Union and North America and years of global depression.

如果欧元区解体,将会怎样?假使欧元区解体,即便只是部分解体——一个或多个财政实力和竞争力较弱的国家退出,其后果也将是一团糟。欧元区全面或是彻底解体,分裂成“大德国马克区”和大约10种不同国家的货币,这将引发一场大混乱。现有的政治、manbetx20客户端下载 及法律承诺不会按照计划有序而渐进地得到解除。财政实力和竞争力疲弱的欧元区成员国,其无序的主权违约也许会成为引发“退出”(不管是全体退出还是部分退出)的导火索。这些国家的货币将大幅贬值,银行也将纷纷倒闭。如果西班牙和意大利也退出欧元区,欧盟(EU)和北美范围内具有系统重要性的金融机构将相继倒闭,随之而来的还有持续数年的manbetx app苹果 性衰退。

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