Until this weekend, any expert assessment inside or outside the US government would have stated that the most likely scenario for a collapse of the North Korean regime would be the sudden death of the isolated leader Kim Jong-il. After yesterday’s revelation by North Korea’s state television, we now face that uncertain scenario.
This is a watershed moment. It is not at all clear that the plan to hand power to Kim’s youngest son, Kim Jong-eun, can be carried out successfully. Kim Jong-il had 14 years to prepare to take over from his father, Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994. Kim Jong-eun has had just three years since his father had a stroke. He is not even 30 years old.
He has had little preparation in cultivating his own followers. He has no new ideology to associate with his rise to power. I could not think of less ideal conditions – in a North Korean context – under which the so-called “Great Successor” could be given the reins of power. The plan was to surround Jong-eun with elders, including Kim Jong-il’s sister.