Signs of China’s cooling economy do not come more obvious than this. In the fourth quarter of 2011 the country posted the slowest economic growth since the second quarter of 2009. Hard-landing advocates have jumped on yesterday’s output number, down to 8.9 per cent from almost 10 per cent a year previously.
That is understandable. There are factors that point to the risk of a sharp slowdown in China, such as the fast-slowing property market in the cities. But they do not tell the whole story. Do not underestimate the growing importance of the rural economy in keeping gross domestic product growth going at a steady clip. Real rural income growth was 11 per cent in 2011, outpacing its urban equivalent of 8 per cent. Last year was also the fifth consecutive year in which rural income growth exceeded 8 per cent.
The countryside is home to about half of China’s 1.3bn population – more if the 160m migrant population working in cities is included. True, rural incomes are a third of urban levels, official statistics show. But that overlooks the significant extent of undeclared income, and therefore spending power. There are about 300m discretionary spenders in rural areas, China Confidential estimates.