“Whatever will be, will be. The future is not ours to see.” This refrain remains as true for central bankers as for other aspiring economic forecasters. Forecasting is done adequately when everything is stable and the future turns out to be like the past; indeed, standard models used by central banks virtually force forecasts to revert to past trends. But when a break comes, central banks are as clueless to foresee it as anyone else. Forecasts for 2008 made as late as the middle of the same year are a case in point.
“未来该怎样就会怎样，我们根本无从预测。”无论是对央行官员还是对其他有抱负的manbetx20客户端下载 预测人士来说，这句歌词的道理都依然适用。在一切保持稳定、未来重复过去的情况下，预测是没有问题的；事实上，央行使用的标准模型几乎就是在通过硬套过去的趋势来做出预测。但当发生突变时，央行其实与其他人一样，都无从对未来做出预测。他们在2008年年中时对当年所做的预测，就很好地证明了这一点。
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