The nail-biting is so familiar. For days, markets have fixated on political posturing in Athens, weighing up whether Greece will agree to sufficient additional austerity to allow its lenders to advance a second rescue package. Now, the odds seem to be rising, helping the euro gain ground against the dollar. In particular, unconfirmed suggestions that €60bn-ish of Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank could be swapped with the European Financial Stability Fund (which would then lend Greece additional funds to repurchase them) have encouraged optimism. The mechanics may look complex, but a swap arrangement could improve the chances that an accompanying “voluntary” debt restructuring (or PSI deal) between Greece and its private sector creditors will proceed. The ECB, which bought the bonds at a discount, had been insisting on repayment in full.
焦急地等待又开始了——这已成为家常便饭。几日以来，市场一直密切关注希腊政坛的态度，以衡量希腊究竟会不会接受债主们发放第二笔纾困贷款组合的条件——进一步的紧缩举措。如今，希腊接受该条件的可能性正在变大，促使欧元兑美元汇率开始回升。特别是有未经证实的消息称，欧洲央行(ECB)可能将持有的600亿欧元左右的希腊债券与欧洲金融稳定安排(EFSF)的债券进行置换——EFSF之后将额外借给希腊一些资金，用来回购这些债券——这令市场情绪更加乐观。置换机制可能看上去有些复杂，但假如成功，希腊与其私人部门债权人之间的“自愿”债务重组计划（或称私人部门参与计划(PSI)）将更有可能取得进展。用折扣价购买了希腊债券的欧洲央行，此前一直坚持要获得全额偿还。