A mountain of debt is coming due and the principal is unpayable, so governments have agreed to extend maturities. That could be the description of a bail-out package for Greece. Instead, it is what China is doing to prevent scores of provinces and cities from defaulting on bank loans. Does that mean China is another Greece? Far from it.
For starters, China’s economy will expand more than 8 per cent this year, while the eurozone is confronting the likelihood of recession. And that sustained, high-speed growth will make it much easier for Chinese local governments to pay off debts over time.
More to the point, China’s debt woes are very different from those of Europe or the US. In developed countries, the concern is the sheer amount of debt they have accumulated. The Chinese problem is less one of quantity and more one of structure: rather than issuing bonds, local governments have used opaque bank loans for funding.