As economic power shifts from west to east, talk of an Asian century is once again in the air. President Barack Obama’s unveiling of a new defence strategy with the Asia-Pacific region at its heart merely underlines the trend.
The US clearly wants to ensure its “exceptionalism” allows it to keep playing a leading role in what almost everyone believes will be the world’s centre of economic gravity. Such thinking is muddle-headed. No region or nation will dominate the 21st century. The next century will not be Asia’s – or anybody’s. Even if China and India become economic powerhouses, they will not be able to dominate global politics the way the west – particularly the US – did in the 20th century.
The US, regardless of who wins this year’s election, looks determined to go on using the military, economic and political tools that helped it so well in the 20th century. But these will be inadequate for the challenges of this century. The reason for this is the scarcity of resources – and the demands that will be put on them. Last year the world’s population hit 7bn. It will rise to about 9bn-10bn by mid-century and then peak somewhere between 12bn and 15bn in 2100.