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How to nurture the new optimism on the US economy
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美国前财长萨默斯:美国当前的manbetx20客户端下载 复苏,得益于扩张性的财政政策和货币政策,未来几年最大的风险是,政策可能会太快地从扩张转为审慎。

Economic forecasters divide into two groups. There are those who cannot know the future but think they can – and then there are those who recognise their inability to know the future. Major shifts in the economy are rarely forecast and often not fully recognised until they have been under way for some time. So judgments about the US economy have to be tentative. What can be said is that for the first time in five years a resumption of growth significantly above the economy’s potential now appears a substantial possibility. Put differently, after years when growth was more likely to surprise below expectations than above them, the risks are now very much two-sided.

manbetx20客户端下载 预测者可以分为两种,一种不知道未来会发生什么却自以为知道,另一种则承认自己无法预知未来。人们很少能预测到manbetx20客户端下载 中的重大转变,往往是在转变已经进行了一段时间之后才能全面地认识到。因此对于美国manbetx20客户端下载 的判断千万不能武断。现在可以确定的一点是:在长达五年的时间里,美国manbetx20客户端下载 增长率首次看起来大有希望重新恢复到远远超出潜在增速的水平。换言之,在前些年里,manbetx20客户端下载 增长往往只会出人意料地低于预期,而不是超过预期,如今则明显具有双向的可能性。

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