It’s official. The UK is in a double-dip recession. The data are noisy and revision-prone, and the definition of “recession” – two consecutive quarters of contraction – is arbitrary and unhelpful. Forward-looking business confidence surveys, rather than backward-looking output data, suggest an improvement is under way. Still, this ugly landmark looks meaningful. The most erratic figures, for construction, came in much better than conventional wisdom had expected. The big reason why UK gross domestic product recorded a marginal contraction in the first quarter, and not a marginal expansion, was disappointing growth in business services and finance.
官方数据显示，英国陷入了双底衰退。这是个嘈杂的数据，而且很可能会被修正。关于衰退的定义——连续两个季度出现收缩——也有些武断，没有什么参考意义。不同于“后顾性”的产出数据，具有前瞻性的商业信心指数表明形势正在改善。不过，这个难看的标志性数据看起来仍然意义重大。最不稳定的建筑业数据明显好于普遍的预期。英国国内生产总值(GDP)在一季度出现轻微收缩、而非轻微扩张的主要原因是，商业服务和融资方面的增长令人失望。