The elections in France and Greece tell us that austerity fatigue has set in. This is not surprising. For many countries no plausible exit exists from depression, deflation and despair. If the currency union were a normal fixed exchange rate arrangement, it would collapse, as did the gold standard in the 1930s and the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s. The question is whether the fact that it is a monetary union will do more than delay that outcome. The last chance of bringing needed change rests on the shoulders of François Hollande, the newly elected president of France. Mr Hollande says his mission is to give Europe “a dimension of growth and prosperity”. So can he achieve this laudable aim?
法国和希腊的选举告诉我们，“紧缩计划疲劳症”已开始显现。这并不出人意料。对于许多国家而言，看上去不存在摆脱萧条、通缩和绝望的可信退出策略。如果欧元区这个货币联盟只是一个一般的固定汇率安排机制，那么它注定会瓦解，就像金本位和布雷顿森林体系(Bretton Woods system)分别于上世纪30年代和70年代瓦解那样。现在的问题是，欧元区是一个货币联盟的事实，除了延缓瓦解以外，能否发挥其他作用。推动欧元区实行必要变革的最后机会，落在了法国新当选总统弗朗索瓦•奥朗德(François Hollande)的肩上。奥朗德表示，他的使命就是为欧洲带来“增长和繁荣”。那么，他能否实现这一值得赞许的目标呢？