It is not an easy time for Kofi Annan, the UN and Arab League negotiator whose six-point plan for Syria is being largely ignored by both sides in the conflict. It has even been criticised by many as appeasement of the Assad regime and a figleaf allowing it to hide behind a diplomatic process as it wages a brutal crackdown.
The plan’s obituary has been widely written as the world limbers up for tougher action. The perennial cry to do something is being raised from the US presidential campaign to the Arab street. But what? The least serious difficulty with military intervention is Russian opposition in the UN Security Council. But that is really a convenient reason for not having to address the much more substantial challenges.
The first is that the regime is not a beleaguered clique like the Gaddafis, who with one determined outside push were gone. Rather, it represents a sizeable number of minority groups fearing for their futures under Sunni majority rule. Their civilians appear to have been the victims of atrocities, and intervention would mean a long campaign that could resemble Iraq more than Libya.