This is proving to be a disappointing recovery for the major western economies. After a strong rebound in 2010, when the G7 economies grew on average by 3 per cent, growth in the three years 2011-2013 is expected to average about half that rate.
Looking further out, the International Monetary Fund expects the G7 economies to pick up to around 2.5 per cent in the period 2014-17. But that would still leave the average growth rate from this year until 2017 at just over 2 per cent. The equivalent growth rates in the 80s and 90s recoveries were 3.9 per cent (1983-88) and 2.9 per cent (1994-99).
The most popular explanation for this disappointing state of affairs is a lack of demand, reflecting the aftermath of the financial crisis and fiscal retrenchment by governments. But this lack of demand is not apparent in terms of the growth of the global economy as a whole, with emerging market and developing economies performing strongly. In the years 2011 to 2013, average growth across the world economy is still in the 3.5-4 per cent range, above the 3.3 per cent long-term average for the preceding three decades.