There is a story about Europe that says we are living in a rerun of the 1930s. According to this narrative, the populist right is rising again as crisis-hit Europeans look for scapegoats. Indeed, rightwing populist parties have polled more than or near one-fifth of the vote during the crisis in countries as tranquil as Finland and Switzerland. Already the populists are poisoning political debate, by pushing mainstream parties to take far-right paranoid, xenophobic views seriously. Now they aim to graduate to government.
But perhaps we worry too much. A fascinating new report by Counterpoint, the London-based research and advisory group, provides an unhysterical analysis of rightwing populism in Europe today. Merging recent data on voting in France, Finland and the Netherlands with previous surveys from around Europe, Counterpoint identifies who is voting for these parties and why. The report helps us see what strategies the populist right will use to grow - and what strategies we can use to counter them.
A first insight from the report: Europe's far right hasn't risen en masse during the crisis. Since 2008, these parties have surged in some countries, notably Finland, France and Hungary, but they have declined in Denmark, Italy and Switzerland, and gained no traction in Britain. Geert Wilders' PVV party slumped in last week's Dutch elections.