A nice easy question: is the US economy growing or shrinking? The majority view, to simplify slightly, is that increasing employment and rising house prices must amount to an expansion. Dissident pessimists have a more complicated story. The current indicators of industrial production, personal income and sales appeared to have peaked in July 2012, falling for the subsequent three months. But the first two then rebounded strongly in November. Only employment is on a clear upward trend, and it has been known to lag behind the others. Leading indicators are divided too. Building permits are up and initial unemployment claims, while not falling as fast as they were, are easing off. Yet manufacturers’ new orders are weakening and other indicators are moving sideways.
一个很简单的问题：美国manbetx20客户端下载 是增长还是萎缩？大多数观点认为，（稍微简单化一点来说）就业增加和房价上升必定意味着扩张。持不同意见的悲观者则将此看得更为复杂。目前的工业生产、个人收入及销售额指标看起来已在2012年7月见顶，此后三个月连续下滑。但前两者在11月强势反弹。唯有就业率呈明显上升趋势，但该指标一向滞后于其他指标。先行指标也发出不同信号。建造许可数量上升，初期的失业金申请数量正在放缓（虽然没有前一阶段下降得那样快）。然而，制造商新订单正在趋缓，其他指标则飘忽不定。