For a prime example of a state with a split personality, watch Russia. On one hand, President Vladimir Putin writes to US counterpart Barack Obama, expressing hopes that their “relationship will move ahead in various areas”. On the other, the Kremlin returns to the mantra of “unique Russian civilisation” and does its best to close the country to the west. Western observers may shrug, saying they’ve seen it all before. But actually, things have changed.
First, Mr Putin’s team no longer cares what the west thinks. Second, the Kremlin has switched from imitating democracy to deterring European values. Anyone who thinks this shift will not affect Russian foreign policy is wrong. It is already having an impact. Look at Kremlin defence spending and Moscow’s attempts to create a Eurasian Union from former Soviet states.
But what, asks the optimist, about the partnerships of state-controlled energy group Rosneft with ExxonMobil and BP? Mr Putin needs western business to prolong his petrostate but the fate of Shell and BP in Russia proves they are at the mercy of the Kremlin’s moods.