A decade ago, I sometimes joked that “Davos Man” (as the global elite is sometimes dubbed) believed in a holy trinity of ideas. First, there was reverence for innovation; second, there was blind faith that capitalism was good; third, it was assumed that globalisation was beneficial and unstoppable. The 21st century was thus presumed to be an era when capitalism, innovation and globalisation would rule – and develop in a straight line.
How times change. In the past five years, those free market ideals have been observed as much in the breach as in operation in the west, and faith in innovation has wilted too (check out some recent analysis by Peter Thiel and Garry Kasparov for a discussion of this). Last week, a study from McKinsey, the consultants, suggested that the third leg of that trinity – globalisation – is withering too.
That might sound surprising, in some senses. After all, the internet is connecting the world more deeply every day and the 2008 financial crisis has not produced any real trade protectionism, of the sort seen in the 1930s. But behind the scenes – or, rather, deep in the financial data – something startling is afoot in the world of money. Far from an extension of globalisation, the 21st century is delivering localisation in financial flows. And since that is occurring amid greater state involvement in markets, the net result flies in the face of what Davos Man ever expected to see.