Everyone has a favourite way of telling when bubbles are forming. Tried-and-tested examples include when Japanese groups buy golf courses, when new media buy old and when banks rush to lend to the uncreditworthy. Now Thailand is adding its own: when the country’s largest convenience store owner undertakes the biggest domestic deal to date buying the country’s largest cash and carry operator. Betting on Thailand’s rising income levels is one thing. But paying $6.6bn – an aisle-busting 53 times last year’s earnings, or 44 times expected 2013 profits – is just too much.
每个人都有自己最喜欢的方式来判断泡沫正在形成。久经验证的例子包括:日本集团收购高尔夫球场、新媒体收购老牌媒体,以及银行争先向信用不佳者放贷。现在泰国也贡献了自己的方式:该国最大的便利商店所有者发起迄今最大一笔国内交易,拟收购该国最大的现购自运经营商。押注泰国日益增长的收入水平是一回事。但支付66亿美元(相当于去年利润的53倍、2013年预期利润44倍的惊人价格)实在是太多了。