There are three big things going on in east Asia. The most visible and disruptive is the rise of China. The second is a resurgence, particularly in Japan, of competing and mutually reinforcing nationalisms. The third is the return of the US as a resident Asian power. Then there is the joker in the pack: the dangerous unpredictability of Kim Jong-eun’s regime in North Korea.
The dynamics of, and collisions between, these trends will make the difference between war and peace in what is at once the world’s most vibrant and potentially combustible region. After a few days in Seoul listening to policy makers and scholars from the interested states, I would struggle to say I am brimming with optimism.
The Asan Institute, South Korea’s foreign policy think-tank, held its annual conference this week. It took as its theme “New World Disorder”. The organisers emphasised the title was chosen long before the latest nuclear sabre-rattling by Mr Kim. Even without that menace, this region feels as strategically insecure as it is economically powerful.