At a government-sponsored forum in Shanghai a few weeks ago, a senior official at China’s State Administration for Foreign Exchange was asked about the level of the renminbi.
The renminbi, of course, is a controlled currency which is allowed to trade within a narrow band against the dollar. But if capital controls were dismantled, the official, Guan Tao, director-general of SAFE’s balance of payments division, said he thought the renminbi would appreciate. A survey of the (mostly Chinese) audience agreed.
After reaching a peak in February, the renminbi has fallen nearly 2 per cent against the dollar. But that is nothing when compared with the downward moves of other currencies. Year to date, the Chinese currency was the only one out of the eight currencies that JPMorgan surveys in its Global Data Watch that investors would have made money on against the dollar.