One of the most notorious facets of Chinese life may be about to change: it has been reported that Beijing is considering much broader exemptions from the “one-child” policy, which limits most urban families to one child. This change cannot come soon enough: the country is heading into severe demographic problems.
The share of the population that is of working age (19 to 59 years old) relative to the country’s total population peaked three years ago, and is declining rapidly. Under current conditions, the proportion of the population that is aged 65 or older is projected to double by the early 2030s. By 2050, without significant reforms, there will be fewer than 1.6 workers for every retired person in China.
Allowing every family to have two children would increase the number of workers supporting each retired person, and limit the number of forced abortions. Yet it would not automatically lead to a fertility rate of 2.1 per household, the rate necessary to hold China’s population level. In industrialised Asian nations without population control laws, as people move from the land to cities and more women join the workforce, fertility rates have been dropping below 1.5 children per family.