What skills does the next chairman of the US Federal Reserve really need? A decade ago, the answer seemed clear: political acumen, excellent economic knowledge, and the ability to analyse reams of statistics to deliver effective monetary policy responses. But if Douglas Holmes, a professor of anthropology, is correct, the Fed chairman needs something else, too: the linguistic and cultural skills of a preacher cum therapist.
The reason? During the past decade, Prof Holmes has been conducting research inside central banks to understanding their cultural and social dynamics. In particular, he has analysed how central bankers across the world have tried to control inflation through actions and (most importantly) ritualistic statements. The research is unusually timely, as investors digest the latest Fed minutes – and economists, policy makers and journalists gather for the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole.
In a forthcoming article in the Cornell Law Review, one of Prof Holmes’ conclusions is that many of us use the wrong yardstick for judging central banks. The issue revolves around how we think the economy works (or does not). In popular discussions, it is often presumed that the financial system is like a machine. Thus central bankers are depicted as economic engineers: they judge what is happening in the economy by reading dials, and control it by pulling levers that control the price or supply of money.