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The moral hazard of saving too much
过度储蓄的道德风险


FT专栏作家普伦德:自危机爆发以来,储蓄国并未下功夫降低储蓄率,支出国则被迫增加储蓄,以降债务。这种不对称反应,恐怕正将世界推向通缩。

It is, I suppose, inevitable that much comment on the fifth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers has focused on the role of leverage and excessive risk-taking as prime causes of the financial crisis. Certainly, both factors played a big part in the downfall of this once mighty investment bank. Yet the single most important force behind the majority of big bubbles and busts is monetary dislocation, which in this case derived from the actions of central banks over three decades, and a savings glut in Asia and northern Europe.

在雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产五周年之际,几乎不可避免地,大部分媒体评论仍将高杠杆和过度冒险视作金融危机的主要原因。曾经强大的雷曼兄弟之所以倒闭,这两点固然是重要原因。但是,大规模泡沫之所以产生继而破灭,最重要的原因仍是资金的错配。导致这轮金融危机的资金错配,与各国央行30年来的行为,以及亚洲和北欧国家的过度储蓄息息相关。

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