It’s a tricky one for the efficient market theory. Last Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that BlackBerry was cutting 40 per cent of its staff. The company couldn’t even manage a denial. This looked like final confirmation of the Canadian company’s demise. Reports of unsold inventory had been swirling (the company called for an investigation of the analysts responsible, betraying its own fears). BlackBerry had already said it was exploring “strategic alternatives”. Yet news of the layoffs did not move the shares. Perhaps, at $10.25, the stock was already trading on the assumption that BlackBerry would be sold for scrap. But then the group said on Friday it would report a terrible second quarter, with revenue falling by half from the first. The shares then tumbled by a fifth – stopped only by a conditional $9 buyout offer yesterday. Had Friday’s sellers thought everybody was getting fired because things were going well? How many hints did these misbegotten souls need?
这是一个用有效市场理论难以解释的案例。上周三《华尔街日报》(WSJ)报道称，黑莓(BlackBerry)将裁员40%。这家加拿大企业甚至没有出面否认，这似乎最后确认了黑莓的没落。有关黑莓未售存货的报道传得沸沸扬扬（而该公司竟然要求对相关分析师进行调查，暴露出其自身的惊慌）。黑莓已表示，正在探索“各种可选战略”。然而，裁员消息并没有导致该公司股价波动。从当时每股10.25美元的价位判断，投资者或许认为黑莓会被低价出售。但黑莓紧接着在上周五表示，第二季度财报会很差，营收额环比下降了一半。黑莓股价闻声下跌五分之一，直到昨日传出有人愿以每股9美元有条件买断的消息时才止住跌势。那些直到上周五才抛售的人是否以为，大规模裁员是因为公司情况正在好转？这些投机者们到底需要多少暗示呢？