Stop counting carrier fleets, fighter jets and cruise missiles. America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan showed the limits of military might. Today’s great games revolve around another dimension of power. Geopolitics is making way for geoeconomics.
There are three sets of big international negotiations under way. They promise to draw the contours of the post-western world, fix the point of the balance between advanced and rising states, and describe China’s place in world. They will decide what can be salvaged from the present multilateral system. The choice lies between open global arrangements and an economic order built around competing blocs.
The immediate focus is on trade. Successful conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks would cement US economic integration with much of east Asia. A parallel Transatlantic Trade and Investment deal would reinject cohesion into Washington’s relationship with Europe. Alongside these regional pacts, the EU is negotiating bilateral deals with India and Japan. To complete the patchwork, the US and EU are leading talks between more than 20 advanced and rising economies to liberalise trade in services.