For many years the Chinese bond market trundled along in obscurity, attracting little cash and even less attention from investors. Suddenly, though, it has been thrust into a starring role in doomsday scenarios for corporate China.
Five-year AAA-rated bonds are now yielding 6.25 per cent, about 175 basis points higher than six months ago. Such a rapid rise in the cost of financing often signals distress for overstretched borrowers, so it is understandable that people are looking at the Chinese bond market with growing alarm.
Having gorged on cheap credit for the past decade, could this be the moment that Chinese property developers and local government investment companies finally choke on debt? The trouble with this bearish question is that it fails to recall the starting point for the rising yields.