Buy fear in emerging markets? Sure. Here’s the fear: big current account deficits are about to get a whole lot bigger as Federal Reserve tapering entices foreign money away. The eurozone periphery (ex-Italy) ran growing deficits before its crisis, and look what happened to it. But EM central banks in the worst deficit countries can do what euro members cannot: they are starting to raise rates (aggressively at times) to entice the money back. This will rebalance current accounts.
趁着恐慌情绪在新兴市场买入?当然可以。先来说说恐慌:随着美联储(Fed)缩减资产购买规模、引诱外资流出,某些国家的巨额经常账户赤字将会显著增大。欧元区外围国家(意大利除外)在爆发危机之前赤字越来越大,后来发生了什么是有目共睹的。但是,赤字最严重的新兴市场国家的央行能够做一些欧元区同行做不到的事:它们正开始提高利率(在某些情况下是大幅加息)以吸引资金回流。这将有助于经常账户的再平衡。