观点中东

A tyrant’s overthrow is not a sure end to oppression
街头政治不一定带来民主


哥伦比亚大学历史学教授马佐尔:从埃及到乌克兰的实例证明,街头抗议并不能有效地终结腐败,推翻独裁也不意味着持久的政治未来。真正的体制改革是一个长期、艰难且缺乏戏剧性的过程,它与街头示威者所追求的正相反。

First Tahrir Square, then last year’s Gezi protests in Istanbul, and now Kiev, Caracas, Sarajevo and Bangkok – people have been taking to the streets and holding their governments accountable. A wave of popular mobilisation is gathering pace and in an age of falling voter rolls and political apathy you would have to be stony-hearted not to feel a thrill at the sight. Nothing reveals the essence of popular politics more sharply than that moment when the vast distance that separates those who have power from those in whose name they rule is annihilated. The trappings of office count for nothing, the security forces melt away and the dictator is left alone and impotent. Nicolae Ceausescu’s uncertain wave to the booing crowds in December 1989 presaged his ignoble flight and eventual death.

起先是埃及解放广场(Tahrir Square),然后是去年伊斯坦布尔的加济公园(Gezi)抗议,如今基辅、加拉加斯、萨拉热窝和曼谷也加入进来,人们纷纷涌上街头,追究政府的责任。一股“大众动员”浪潮的势头越来越强——在投票人数不断下降、民众普遍政治冷漠的当今时代,只有铁石心肠的人才不会为这一幕感到心潮澎湃。当横亘在掌权者与被统治者之间遥远的距离被彻底打破,没有什么比这一刻更尖锐地揭示出大众政治的本质。职权的排场已毫无意义,军警瓦解,独裁者受到孤立,再也撑不下去。1989年12月,尼古拉•齐奥塞斯库(Nicolae Ceausescu)对着嘘声四起的人群那迟疑的挥手,预示了他后来不光彩的逃跑和最终的死亡。

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