It has become something of a routine for the Chinese economy: a sluggish start to the year fuels market concerns before more supportive policies from Beijing put growth back on track by the year’s end.
The first half of this routine, which played out in both 2012 and 2013, is once again in full swing. Data published yesterday showed that just about every part of the Chinese economy, from factory floors to shopping malls and building sites, had a dreary start to 2014. Commodities that are closely tied to Chinese growth such as copper and iron ore have come under heavy selling pressure.
The question that will determine the fate of the Chinese economy over the rest of this year and beyond is whether the second half of the routine – a shift to more stimulative policy – will also be repeated. With China’s leadership duo of President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang pledging to press ahead with deep structural reforms after their first full year in office, the answer is more uncertain than in the past.