Beyond economic strength and military prowess, one of the precious ingredients in great power relations is credibility. Allies and adversaries should know that you mean what you say. Nowhere is this truer than in east Asia. Barack Obama might bear the thought in mind when he carries the American flag around the region later this month.
On the face of it the US president’s approach is clear enough. Washington’s response to China’s rise has been to engage and hedge – to seek to draw Beijing into the international system while refurbishing its own regional alliances. More recently, Chinese assertiveness in the East and South China Seas has led US policy to tilt towards a sturdier “engage and compete”. Mr Obama’s visits to Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines are all about underscoring America’s place as a resident Pacific power.
The trickiest stopover will be Tokyo. Japan is America’s most vital regional ally. Under the premiership of Shinzo Abe it is also becoming its most difficult. If the US wants to constrain China, it is also anxious to restrain Mr Abe. The result is an American posture that seeks to blend credibility with ambiguity. The two do not readily mix.