Until recently, China Development Bank, and to a lesser extent China Export Import Bank, were the best friends the emerging markets ever had. They lent money to companies and governments in places where the availability of capital was low, the tenure short and the cost high. They helped companies from Petrobras in Brazil to telecoms groups in Bangladesh and India, to the governments of countries in Africa and Latin America, obtain financing.
Moreover, when borrowers encountered difficulty, these were the most patient bankers. They were reluctant to seize collateral and more willing to roll over loans than their western counterparts.
But the two Chinese policy banks are now stepping back. As the Beijing government puts pressure on its banks generally, mainland credit is being tightened both at home and abroad. While speculation about credit tapering continues in the US, it is already happening in China – big time. And the consequences for parts of the rest of the world will be painful.