A recent visit to China generated several counter-intuitive conclusions.
First, the post-financial crisis lens may be the wrong prism through which to view China. Second, pollution and the anti-corruption campaign are greater and less quantifiable risks than a property or debt bust. Third, China’s 2009 stimulus programme is viewed internally as a big strategic mistake, one unlikely to be repeated. Last, China will not lift the west, nor can the west lift China – the world is defaulting to an economic landscape where it is every country for itself.
Starting at the top, a post-financial crisis search for China debt catalysts makes perfect sense given its recent credit expansion and consequent overbuilding. A residential property bubble does exist – in fact, declining transaction volumes and price reductions suggest it is already deflating. Yet this is a problem policy makers are well aware of and for which multiple tools exist to mitigate the threat of a crash.