The disputed referendums in eastern Ukraine give President Vladimir Putin time to take stock and choose between two very different paths. The first involves grabbing more territory for Russia, attempting to rebuild an empire in the old Soviet sphere, and accepting a prolonged confrontation with the west. The second is more pragmatic – and involves attempting to pocket his Crimean winnings and rebuild relations with the US and the EU.
Which path he chooses depends on events on the ground and, crucially, on the resistance that he encounters from the outside world.
The Kremlin has reason to pause and take stock because future rounds of economic sanctions aimed at Russia are potentially very damaging. Western governments have the power in effect to exclude Russia from the world’s financial system. The key to that system is based in Brussels. It is the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, otherwise known as Swift.