The US recovery simply refuses to live up to expectations. An unusually harsh winter caused gross domestic product growth to dip by 2.9 per cent in the first quarter – the largest non-recession contraction in US history.
No matter, said the optimists. Last winter’s decline should be followed by an equally sharp second quarter rebound. But data released yesterday show US consumers did not open their wallets in spring as the models had forecast. Consumer spending actually fell in May. Even with a strong performance during the remainder of the year, GDP growth is unlikely to be much higher than 2 per cent in 2014 – and for the fifth year running. Clearly there is more to the sluggish US recovery than poor weather. The question is what – if anything – US policy makers will do to speed it up.
The answer is not a great deal. The monetary tool kit is already depleted. The US Federal Reserve is on course to complete the $10bn a month taper by the autumn. Even if the latest data prompted the Fed to change course, putting the taper on hold would make little difference and could even backfire. Headline inflation is inching uncomfortably close to the Fed’s target of 2 per cent.