For many, China’s growth model, which has delivered average annual GDP growth of 10 per cent over the past three decades, simply looks wrong: a national savings rate of around 50 per cent is unheard of in a large, modern economy.
A typical diagnosis states that China invests too much and consumes too little. The prescription is “rebalancing” – moving the economy away from investment towards consumption-led growth. However, a consumption-led growth model has little in theory or evidence to support it.
For developing economies (which China still is in per capita terms), the theory is quite clear: they should invest in building up their capital stock per worker. A higher savings rate will mean less consumption, but it funds greater investment too. That ultimately allows poorer countries to catch up to higher per-capital GDP levels faster.