The shortcomings of US official economic statistics are plain for everyone to see.
After having initially predicted a 1 per cent economic slowdown for the first quarter of this year, these statistics were then vastly adjusted downwards. In their latest version, which might not be the last, they point to a 2.9 per cent economic downturn, which is simply inconsistent with the much more resilient industrial production and employment numbers published since.
The plain truth is that even without the hiccup in the first quarter, the US economy would still be experiencing its weakest post-recession recovery in any of the 11 cycles since the second world war. And it is very unlikely, in our opinion, that it would be able to post a 3 per cent growth rate for the rest of this year. Moreover, this is happening in spite of the most accommodative monetary policy on record, with interest rates down to zero and a fourfold increase in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet over five years.