Economists have long been expecting widespread defaults of the trust products - sold to retail investors - that finance China's most vulnerable borrowers. So why is it not happening?
China's total debt has grown to more than 2.5 times GDP, according to Standard Chartered, from less than 1.5 times in 2008.
Much of that credit is lending from the trust sector, which has financed or refinanced borrowers and projects that state-owned banks shy away from: the ghost towns, the infrastructure projects that do not produce cash flows, the struggling steel mills.
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