Have we seen the low point for US 10-year yields in this cycle? At the start of this year, the reply to this question would have been a resounding “yes” from the investment community. Now, people are not so sure.
The decline in yields from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent has been one of the “pain trades” of 2014. But this is not because a 50 basis points decline in yields is something out of the ordinary; rather it is because it has reminded investors that the downward trend in US Treasury yields is still intact.
However, it remains our conviction that we have already seen the low point in yields for this cycle.
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