Both Occupy Central and its nemesis Anti-Occupy might agree on one thing: a win for the other side is a threat to Hong Kong’s special status as the commercial gateway to China.
Obituaries for the territory’s privileged position have been written before. Then – in 1997 when doomsayers predicted Communist party mismanagement, and in the 2003 Sars panic – the old system proved resilient. The government (Hong Kong’s or China’s, as you please) was supportive. Hong Kong has globally credible legal and commercial standards. The arrangement benefited both sides.
But China no longer needs Hong Kong as much as it did. Shenzhen and Shanghai have grown up. China’s growth has made the country an essential partner. So China can set its own terms, from multinationals’ pricing policies, to the law its firms apply to commercial contracts. Hong Kong may stand up for its independence, but China will direct where business should go.