Tactical victories often end in strategic defeats. That is what Vladimir Putin is in for. The Russian president’s calculations appeared correct at first: the west swallowed the annexation of Crimea, and the Ukrainians did not resist for fear of all-out war. That put Russia on the path of military-patriotic mobilisation, enabling Mr Putin to claim absolute power without resorting to mass repressions. Yet by turning Russia into a war state, Mr Putin has unleashed the process he cannot stop and made himself hostage to suicidal statecraft.
He cannot now exit the war paradigm without risking a loss of power. For now he makes deals and wears a peacemaker’s hat, but he will inevitably return to the besieged fortress. He can rule only by subjugating the nation in a way that only war can justify. Russians will remember their economic problems soon enough.
Mr Putin has dismantled the post-cold war settlement that allowed him to engage economically with the west in the interests of the Russian petrostate, while keeping Russian society closed to western influence. His aggression has ensured Russia’s Ukrainian neighbour will forever look west.