Change is coming to the international monetary system. Weary of broken promises to give them a say in the running of the International Monetary Fund that matches their economic heft, the so-called Brics countries have set up their own development bank. Brazil, Russia, India and China also plan to pool foreign exchange reserves and avoid having to rely on the IMF during crises.
The eurozone crisis in some ways demonstrated the worth of the old multilateral order. True, the IMF at first went along with a rescue programme premised on fanciful assumptions at the behest of the EU and the European Central Bank. But the Fund subsequently stiffened its spine. It insisted on recognising the full extent of the debt and banking problems in Greece and Cyprus, and demanded a realistic assessment of reforms needed in other troubled economies. Left to themselves, Europeans might have stuck to their delusions.
Such actions demonstrate the IMF’s worth. But its legitimacy remains in doubt. Emerging markets harbour a strong suspicion that if they found themselves in trouble, they would receive smaller loans under more stringent conditions. When it comes to mediating currency wars they see an institution that is impatient when developing countries seek competitive advantage in a weak currency – but which readily acquiesces when big western economies embark on massive programmes of monetary easing that might also be seen as a form of competitive devaluation.