Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping have breathed unexpected life into the Paris climate change talks. By unveiling clear pledges in Beijing to cap China’s emissions by 2030 and further cut America’s by 2025, they have injected hope into a process where little existed before. Sceptics will rightly want to see what action follows the lofty words – global warming pledges too often illustrate the triumph of hope over experience. But at this point they should be grateful for any boost. Before this week, few would have given the Paris negotiations a serious chance of making strides. Now that the world’s largest emitters are setting the pace, Paris feels like a dance worth watching.
The biggest plus point is China’s willingness to make a commitment. Until now, Beijing’s pledges have been unilateral. China’s absence – and that of India and other big developing countries – was what doomed ratification of the 1997 Kyoto Treaty in the US Congress. Mr Xi’s pledge will make it harder for others to hang back and raises the chances of a multilateral deal. Moreover, China also shed its reluctance to set an aggregate goal. It had previously based targets on energy intensity and output per head. By stating that its national output will peak by 2030, China has bought into the logic of mutual pledges on global warming.
There are pleasant surprises, too, in Mr Obama’s announcement. America is on track to meet its promise to cut US emissions to almost a fifth below its 2005 level by the end of this decade. But much of this has come without effort – the recession and the discovery of shale gas have been the key elements. The US president has now upped that pledge to a further 26 to 28 per cent reduction by the middle of the next decade. This will bring the US closer into line with Europe’s more ambitious goals at a time when Brussels seemed like a lonely voice in the talks. The deadline is the end of 2015. In spite of having been stung at Copenhagen in 2009, Mr Obama is now clearly signed up to success in Paris.