Here’s a little puzzle. You’re offered the chance to participate in two high-risk business ventures. Each costs £11,000. Each will be worth £1m if all goes well. Each has just a 1 per cent chance of success. The mystery is that the ventures have very different expected pay-offs.
One of these opportunities is a poor investment: it costs £11,000 to get an expected payout of £10,000, which is 1 per cent of a million. Unless you take enormous pleasure in gambling, the venture makes no sense.
Strangely, the other opportunity, while still risky, is an excellent bet. With the same cost and the same chance of success, how could that be?
您已阅读13%（634字），剩余87%（4294字）包含更多重要信息，订阅以继续探索完整内容，并享受更多专属服务。