Where has all the trade gone? Looking at the figures, a casual observer might conclude that globalisation is in crisis. Total trade in goods and services, having initially bounced back from the global financial crisis, has slowed sharply. Usually growing twice as fast as the world economy, it is underperforming gross domestic product for the first time in four decades.
In reality, the situation is less dire. The period since the financial crisis is certainly not a re-run of the retreat from free trade in the Great Depression. Despite some governments indulging in “murky protectionism” – using regulations to disadvantage foreign competitors – there has been no wholesale resort to trade barriers.
Last week, economists from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank came up with a more plausible explanation: the global system is going through a structural change. Activity that previously involved cross-border trade has been brought within national economies, notably China. A slowing of measured trade growth is not therefore a cause for alarm. It does, however, underline that policy makers should be alert to assess and shape the changing future of globalisation.